Forecasting the 10-year demand for partial colectomies in oncology treatment in northeastern Brazil

Introduction: Colorectal cancer is a common malignancy affecting the colon or rectum, with approximately 1.9 million new cases worldwide in 2020, being the third most frequent cancer in Brazil’s population, with 40 thousand new cases each year. Surgery is the primary treatment for this disease, with partial colectomy being a common approach, involving removal of the segment of the colon containing the tumor and some surrounding healthy tissue, followed by reconnecting the remaining sections. Partial colectomy can be performed via open surgery or laparoscopically, the latter offering benefits like shorter recovery times and less postoperative pain.

Objective: This study aims to forecast the 10-year demand for partial colectomy amongst colon cancer patients in Northeastern Brazil, evaluating the potential necessity for interregional collaboration according to migration trends.

Methods: An observational study was conducted using annual estimates of partial colectomies amongst colon cancer patients from DATASUS, from 2013 to 2023 in Northeastern Brazil. Forecasting models regarding number and pricing of authorization for hospital admissions (AIH) by place of residence and hospitalization were made with ARIMA (R programming 4.0) and used to predict annual oncology colectomy for the next ten years (2024-2033).

Results: The ARIMA forecast predicted average annual demand of 414 (95% CI: 275,86-552,50) partial colectomies for oncology patients residing in the northeastern region. Similarly, the forecast for in-region hospitalizations is 412 (95% CI: 272,86-552,04) patients per year. By 2033, it is estimated a mean value of R$ 2.201.864,00 (95% CI 1.745.235 -2.658.493) of total expenditure with this procedure, with a cost of R$ 5.424,96 (95% CI 3.616,93 – 7.232,97) per patient in Northeastern region. Meanwhile, the estimate of expenses for hospitalizations is R$ 2.194.325,00 (95% CI: 1.729.299-2.659.352) and R$ 5.429,45 (95% CI: 3.618,06-7.240,84) per patient, which indicates that, possibly, this region has a trend of receiving proper fundings for partial colectomies for the next ten years.

Conclusion: Migratory trends weren’t noted over the next 10 years, as expenditure by place of residence and hospitalization are quite similar. However, investment in this procedure is still relevant, considering the demand and its need of maintenance over the next years, as to ensure reliable, cost-effective, and prompt cancer surgeries nationwide.

Corresponding author: Hugo Antunes Macedo (e-mail: hugoantmac@hotmail.com).